10 Most Undervalued U.S. Cities

Housing research organization IHS Global Insight estimates that the average U.S. home is undervalued by 12.2 percent, and many previously pricey communities are undervalued by considerably more.

A recent study released by IHS used home prices, interest rates, area incomes, population density, and historic premiums and discounts to analyze housing values. It examined 330 markets and found homes are underpriced in 248 of them.

Despite the high percentage of undervalued areas, IHS says "it is too early to call a bottoming," as "job losses continue, housing inventories remain elevated, and consumers remain wary in light of economic uncertainty."

Here are the 10 most undervalued areas:

1. Vero Beach, Fla., -42.5 percent



2. Houma, La., -41.4 percent



3. Las Vegas, -40.9 percent



4. Merced, Calif., -40.1 percent



5. Cape Coral, Fla., -39.1 percent



6. Houston, -36.9 percent



7. Midland, Texas, -34.8 percent



8. Lafayette, La., -34.4 percent



9. Vallejo, Calif., -34.3 percent



10. Stockton, Calif., -34.3 percent

Source: CNNMoney.com, Les Christie (06/04/2009)

Home Prices: There's No Quick Recovery Ahead

So, is our long national nightmare over? Has the housing market finally hit bottom?

There has been some muted -- albeit exhausted -- cheering from homeowners in recent weeks. But before we break out the champagne, look out for further potential problems just down the road.

The good news? According to the closely watched Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks home prices across 20 major cities nationwide, the three-year housing slump slowed sharply in April and May.

May's decline was just 0.2%, the slowest in two years. And several cities actually saw prices rise -- among them Denver, Washington, D.C., Chicago, Boston, Cleveland and Dallas.

Even Miami only fell about 1% in May. That's a great month down there. Previously, prices had been falling 3% a month.

We'll get an even better picture of the situation when the Case-Shiller figures for June are released on Aug. 25.

But these data aren't the only hopeful signs.

Inventories of unsold homes have come down. According to the National Association of Realtors, there were about 3.8 million unsold homes on the market at the end of June. That's down a long way from 4.5 million a year ago.

And yes, housing affordability is dramatically better. People, obviously, need to live somewhere. At some point, housing gets cheap enough that the fundamentals start to look good.

The average home is about a third cheaper than it was at the peak three years ago, a plunge unprecedented since the Great Depression. In the hardest-hit places, such as Phoenix, Las Vegas and Miami, average prices have been halved or better from their bubble peaks.

Cheap Mortgages, Too
Factor in falling mortgage rates as well, and housing starts to look cheap by many measures. Thirty-year mortgage rates, at around 5.5%, are still low by historic standards. A few months ago, when they fell below 5%, they were very cheap.

There's some other good news for homeowners from the rest of the economy. July's job losses were better than feared: The unemployment rate, which was heading vertical a few months ago, eased to 9.4% last month from 9.5%.

Some are saying the worst is behind us, for the economy and the housing market. No wonder the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction exchange-traded fund (ITB), which tracks shares of home-building stocks, has bounced sharply since early July.

So, is that it? Not so fast.

Prices may -- may -- be nearing the bottom in many markets. But beyond the headlines, there are plenty of reasons to stay cautious. There may even be fresh dangers just ahead.

And even if prices have stopped falling, it may be years before they start rising sharply again.

First, late spring is traditionally the strongest season in the real-estate market.

And it's hardly a surprise the market saw some green shoots this time around. It's enjoying not one, but two, gigantic taxpayer subsidies -- an $8,000 refundable tax credit, or gift, for first-time buyers, as well as those cheap mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve has been spending billions of dollars to keep interest rates down.

Both are only short-term fixes. Any sustained economic upturn would be expected to send long-term mortgage rates rising again, dousing the real-estate market with fresh cold water.

Glut of Empty Houses
The picture on inventories isn't as good as it sounds, either. A lot of unsold homes have simply been put up for rent instead, especially in the most difficult markets like Miami. The result? A glut of empty rentals as well.

New waves of foreclosures and distressed sales may be coming, too. In states such as California, it can take many months for delinquencies to turn to foreclosures, which means last winter's bad news may still be coming down the pike. Meanwhile, vast tranches of teaser-rate mortgages are due to reset later this year and in 2010.

As for the economy: Both unemployment and household debt levels remain at extremely high levels by the standards of postwar history. Either is bad news for housing. The combination is very bad.

Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, argued in a recent paper that the fundamentals still aren't great. It still remains cheaper to rent than to own in many markets, he says.

The biggest bubbles usually produce the deepest busts. And the 2002-2006 bubble was a doozy. The bad news may have ended after three terrible years, but maybe not. Japanese housing prices still haven't recovered from the late 1980s bubble. Western U.S. markets took six or seven years to recover after the last big bubble burst there in the early 1990s.

Yes, there are some hopeful signs, but don't let them fool you into thinking it's all clear. It might not be. As ever, anyone making a major financial decision needs to think more about his or her own situation than what "the market" is doing. A real-estate purchase needs to make sense on its own terms. And measure it on cash flow today, not the hope for capital gains tomorrow. When you factor in all the costs, is the purchase cheaper than renting?

If you get a cheap mortgage and you are aggressive on price, you may get a bargain. That's especially true if the owner has to sell. Foreclosures and other distressed sales are selling for about 20% below the rest of the market. There are opportunities out there. But you can afford to take your time to shop around.






(The Wall Street Journal, Brett Arends, 8/16/09)

Top 10 Best Places to Live

U.S. News & World Reportmagazine looked at areas with strong economies, low living costs, and plenty of fun things to do to identify this year's best places to live.

The editors reviewed more than 2,000 locations nationwide, considering such factors as sales taxes, housing prices, average number of children per square mile, proximity to healthcare, and the availability of educational institutions. Readers can use a database search to tailor the results to their own situation.

"Choosing where to live is a difficult decision for any family," says Brian Kelly, editor of U.S. News & World Report. "With U.S. News's Best Places to Live, we've crunched the most important geographic, economic, and educational data and provided the search tools to help make this decision a little easier for families."

The 10 cities honored as Best Places to Live are (listed alphabetically):

1. Albuquerque, N.M.



2. Auburn, Ala.



3. Austin, Texas



4. Boise, Idaho



5. Durham, N.C.



6. La Crosse, Wis.



7. Loveland, Colo.



8. San Luis Obispo, Calif.



9. St. Augustine, Fla.



10. Upper St. Clair, Pa.

Source: U.S. News & World Report (06/09/2010)

Many underwater homeowners are deliberately walking away from mortgages

A study finds that 26% of the defaults across the country are calculated economic decisions to bail out of loans by borrowers who could afford to make the monthly payments.

Reporting from Washington -- Would you, under any circumstances, default on your home mortgage, even if you could afford to make the monthly payments?

That's a trickier question than you might assume, according to new research from the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business and Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.

The study found that 26% of the record numbers of home mortgage defaults across the country are "strategic" -- that is, calculated economic decisions to bail out of loans by owners who actually have the money to make the payments but can't handle the negative equity they're carrying caused by local property value declines.

Nationwide, according to data from Zillow.com, 22% of all homeowners were underwater, with mortgage debts that exceeded their home values, in the first quarter of 2009.

In some parts of California and Nevada, more than half of all households have negative equity. In a few localities, the size of the equity deficit is staggering: In the Salinas, Calif., metropolitan area, for example, the median equity for people who bought their homes in 2006, near the peak of the boom, is now a negative $214,305, according to the study.
When researchers questioned two nationally representative statistical samples of households about strategic defaults, they found that moral and social beliefs play a constraining role, but negative equity and the frequency of defaults in local ZIP Codes have significant contrary effects.

Co-authors Paola Sapienza, Luigi Zingales and Luigi Guiso used interviews with 2,000 U.S. households in December and March to explore the "moral and social" dynamics of strategic defaults.

The two 1,000-person samples came from the Chicago Booth/Kellogg School Financial Trust Index, which monitors the level of trust households have in the financial system.

Their research not only represents the first attitudinal study of the phenomenon of widespread strategic walkaways from home loan commitments, but also has implications for federal policies seeking to limit the numbers of foreclosures -- which are on pace for a record 3.1 million filings this year, according to RealtyTrac Inc.

Among the study's sobering findings:

• Moral precepts keep large numbers of financially struggling homeowners out of default, but only to a point. Fully 81% of household heads said they believed intentional defaults on mortgages to be "morally wrong." But that high percentage begins to crumble as negative equity grows increasingly larger.
• When negative equity rose to $50,000, 7% of those who consider strategic defaults to be immoral said they'd walk away. At $100,000 negative equity, 22% would do so. At negative $200,000, 37% of those with moral objections would nonetheless default, and at $300,000, 38% said they would.
• Among those who had no moral reservations, the percentages were much higher. At $50,000 negative equity, 20% said they'd walk away. At negative $100,000, 41% would do so, as would 59% at negative $200,000 and 63% at $300,000.
• The researchers found that age, tenure of homeownership, the frequency of foreclosures in a person's ZIP Code and even politics influence an owner's willingness to bail out of a mortgage. Owners under age 35 are less likely to have moral problems with strategic defaults, as are self-described political independents, compared with Republicans and Democrats.
• An important factor in walkaways, according to the researchers, is the level of foreclosures owners observe in their local community and their personal acquaintance with owners who have defaulted. In the latter case, owners who know someone who defaulted strategically are 82% more likely to default themselves, compared with owners who do not know anyone in that situation.
• The higher the number of foreclosures in a given ZIP Code, the higher owners' willingness to walk away, the researchers found, suggesting what they call a "contagion effect that reduces the social stigma associated with default as defaults become more common."
• High numbers of foreclosures also appear to create a "vicious circle" that increases neighboring owners' negative equity and greatly raises the probability of additional defaults, foreclosures and equity destruction in the area.
• Although the authors offer no specific remedies -- they are behavioral researchers, not policy advisors -- they argue that the traditional assumption that borrowers default because they can't afford their monthly payments needs to be reexamined in light of accelerating foreclosures in some markets combined with plummeting equity.
• The Obama administration appeared to take a step in that direction July 1 when it allowed refinancings of Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-owned mortgages in which owners have as much as 25% negative equity. Previously the limit was 5%.

(Source: Kenneth R. Harney)